Key Developments
Bitcoin BTC$70,732.66 is trading near $68,250, returning to a price range that dates back to early February after multiple failed attempts to convincingly surpass $75,000.
The most recent selloff occurred on Saturday, after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to “obliterate” Iran’s power plants unless the country opened the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours.
Market Context
The weekend price action led to a CME gap — the difference between the price of bitcoin when futures on the exchange end the week on Friday and when they resume trading on Sunday evening. That gap would be filled if bitcoin recovers to $70,000 on Monday.
Gold and silver took another leg down on Monday with January’s record highs now seemingly confirmed as a result of speculative mania rather than a genuine safe-haven move.
In contrast, the Dollar Index (DXY) is back trading above 100, buoyed by inflation fears and a halt to the Fed’s interest-rate-cutting cycle.
What To Watch
The altcoin market has underperformed bitcoin since midnight UTC, with decentralized finance (DeFi) tokens ETHFI, HYPE and SKY losing around 3% while BTC is in the black after falling on Saturday and Sunday.
- Over $400 million worth of leveraged crypto futures bets have been liquidated in the past 24 hours. More than $280 million were longs, the most since Feb. 25, a sign bullish bets have taken a sizeable hit due to bitcoin’s Sunday drop.
- Open interest (OI) in futures tied to gold token PAXG has increased 4% in 24 hours as investors pulled capital from futures on major cryptocurrencies, including BTC. Ether’s OI increased by just under 1%.
- On decentralized exchange Hyperliquid, Brent crude, WTI crude, gold and silver perpetuals rank among the top 10 perpetual contracts by open interest, surpassing major tokens such as XRP. Volume profiles show a similar bias for traditional commodities.
- Funding rates paint a mixed picture of the market sentiment. Traders seem to be chasing bearish exposure in tokens such as XRP, BNB, SOL, TRX, DOGE and ADA, as evidenced by their negative funding rates. Meanwhile, rates for BTC, BCH, HYPe, XMR, and LINK remain positive, indicating strong sentiment.
- BCH and LINK also boast a positive 24-hour cumulative volume delta. This, coupled with positive funding rates, points to sustained net buying pressure, with leveraged traders positioning for further upside in both tokens.
- BTC’s 30-day implied volatility index, BVIV, has bounced to 60% from 53% on Wednesday, indicating renewed uncertainty and fear as the Iran war drags on and major banks point to a sustained oil price rally ahead.
- Ether’s volatility index, EVIV, jumped to 84% on Sunday, the highest since early February.
- On Deribit, BTC put options are priced at a premium of eight volatility points to call options out to the June-end expiry. This indicates a strong demand for hedging against potential price declines.
- Block flows featured an outsized demand for BTC put spreads, a bearish strategy and ETH straddles, a bet on volatility.
- CoinDesk’s DeFi Select Index (DFX) is the worst-performing benchmark on Monday, losing 0.75% since midnight UTC, while the CDMEME and SCPXC are down by around 0.4%
- Privacy tokens bucked the bearish trend, with DASH, NIGHT, and XMR all rising by 3% to 5% over the past 24 hours. The sector performed well at the tail end of 2025, buoyed by improving sentiment around anonymous transactions and improved regulatory clarity.
- CoinMarketCap’s “Altcoin Season” index is at 49/100, receding slightly from last week’s high of 53, but substantially higher than last month, when it dipped to 22.
- One reason to be optimistic is the average relative strength index (RSI), which is currently in “oversold” territory, suggesting a bounce for several altcoins could be on the cards this week.
