Headline: BofA Survey Flags Thin Cash Buffers, Raising Near‑Term Equity Risk
Introduction: Portfolio cash allocations have fallen to levels that historically preceded short-term stock market softness, according to Bank of America’s latest fund manager survey. The findings suggest investors have leaned aggressively into risk assets, potentially setting the stage for a tactical pullback.
Bank of America’s survey indicates that average cash balances among professional money managers are approaching roughly 3.7%—a threshold that has historically aligned with weaker equity returns and stronger performance from U.S. Treasuries over the following one to three months. Since 2002, similar readings have appeared about 20 times, and on those occasions equities typically lagged while government bonds outperformed. The signal points to stretched risk appetite and thinner liquidity cushions across portfolios.
The cautionary note arrives as markets reassess the durability of the AI trade and mega-cap leadership. While upcoming catalysts—such as earnings from leading semiconductor names and new AI product updates—could refresh momentum, positioning looks crowded. In this backdrop, even strong corporate results may need to clear a high bar to sustain gains, leaving room for volatility and a possible rotation toward safer fixed-income assets.
Key Points: – Bank of America’s fund manager survey shows cash allocations nearing a historically low band around 3.7%. – Historically, such low cash levels have been followed by weaker stock performance and outperformance from U.S. Treasuries over 1–3 months. – The data suggests elevated risk appetite and reduced liquidity buffers in institutional portfolios. – AI-related trades and mega-cap tech leadership face a “high bar” environment for positive surprises. – Near-term volatility risk may rise, with potential for a tactical shift toward safer fixed-income assets.
