Headline: Australian Dollar Climbs as Robust Jobs Data Pushes RBA Cuts Off the Table
Australia’s latest labour market report delivered a positive surprise, propelling the Australian dollar higher and reinforcing expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will keep interest rates on hold in the near term. The data showed a stronger-than-expected improvement in employment and a dip in the unemployment rate, easing recent concerns about a softening jobs market.
The RBA’s policy framework centers on price stability and full employment. While inflation pressures remain a key focus, the labour market had shown signs of cooling in recent months. October’s figures reversed that trend: the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, beating expectations of 4.4% and improving from 4.5% previously. Total employment growth came in at roughly double market forecasts, with a notable surge in full-time positions—an indicator of underlying demand for labour.
For monetary policy, the implications are clear. A tighter jobs market reduces the urgency for rate cuts, and the central bank is now widely expected to remain on hold through the coming months, with any reassessment more likely toward the end of the first quarter. The immediate market reaction underscored that view, with the AUD gaining as traders priced out near-term easing and leaned into a more resilient domestic outlook.
Key Points – AUD strengthens after a stronger-than-expected Australian jobs report – Unemployment rate fell to 4.3% versus 4.4% expected and 4.5% prior – Employment growth was about twice the market forecast, led by full-time jobs – RBA seen holding interest rates; near-term rate cuts look unlikely – Solid labour data eases concerns about a deteriorating jobs market – Market focus shifts to inflation trends and policy guidance into Q1
