FX braces for Canada’s steel tariffs, AUD/NZD data risk; oil eyes Russian strain as crypto rebounds
Traders head into Asia hours balancing fresh protectionist headlines from Canada, a fragile Russian macro backdrop, and a chip-led equity bid—while AUD and NZD face data risks and Bitcoin’s rebound bolsters risk sentiment at the margins.
Key points
- Canada imposes 25% tariffs on US steel derivatives, raising policy risk for cross-border trade and potentially complicating the inflation outlook for CAD.
- Russia’s economy shows fresh stress—rising inflation, a 20% drop in oil revenue, and slumping retail and steel—intensifying recession risk and commodity volatility.
- AUD and NZD in focus ahead of Thursday’s New Zealand and Australia releases, with liquidity and positioning likely to amplify moves.
- AI-driven memory chip shortage sees Dell and HP warn of up to 50% price hikes by Q2 2025; valuations rise for Samsung and SK Hynix, buoying Asian equity sentiment.
- Bitcoin jumps back above $90,000, up 2% in 24 hours; XRP activity hits 4 billion transactions as a new Grayscale ETF launches. HBAR tests resistance on higher volume.
FX: Tariffs, growth worries and Asia data steer the tone
Canada’s move to levy 25% tariffs on US steel derivatives injects a new protectionist wrinkle into North American trade flows. For FX, the immediate lens is inflation versus growth: tariffs may lift domestic input costs and stoke price pressures even as they risk denting activity. That mix can leave the Canadian dollar reactive to incoming inflation prints and rate-path expectations. Watch CAD crosses for two-way volatility as markets parse pass-through to consumer goods and construction inputs.
In the Asia session, the calendar turns to New Zealand and Australia on Thursday, November 27, 2025. With positioning tight and liquidity thinner around event risk, AUD/NZD could see outsized moves on even modest surprises. Traders will key in on growth, labor, and inflation signals that shape the RBA/RBNZ bias and front-end rate differentials.
Macro and commodities: Russian strain keeps oil traders cautious
Fresh signs of strain in Russia’s economy—inflation rising, oil revenue down 20%, and slumps in retail and steel—raise the specter of recession. For commodities, the picture is nuanced: weaker revenues can reflect lower prices, volumes, or discounting, and the feedback loop to supply decisions can influence crude’s risk premium. FX traders will watch RUB sensitivity and broader risk appetite, as tighter domestic conditions can spill over through energy markets.
Equities: AI memory shortage energizes Asia tech
The AI boom is intensifying a memory chip shortage, with Dell and HP signaling as much as 50% price increases by Q2 2025. Investor enthusiasm has lifted valuations for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, underpinning regional equity sentiment. A stronger tech tape can bolster risk appetite and, at the margins, support pro-cyclical FX in Asia—though the benefits may be tempered if higher component costs leak into global inflation.
Digital assets: Crypto recovery aids risk mood
Bitcoin climbed back above $90,000, up 2% over 24 hours, shaking off a 30% drawdown from its all-time high. Liquidity remains patchy, but the rebound helps steady broader risk sentiment. Elsewhere, XRP notched 4 billion transactions, and Grayscale launched a new ETF—developments that keep institutional participation in focus. Among altcoins, HBAR rose 0.9% to $0.1431 on a 28% volume uptick, testing $0.1480 resistance; traders are watching $0.1430 as near-term support.
What to watch next
- CAD: Price pressures vs. growth headwinds as steel tariffs filter through input costs.
- AUD/NZD: Sensitivity to New Zealand and Australia data on Thursday, with potential for outsized moves in thinner liquidity.
- Oil: Whether Russian macro stress shifts supply dynamics or risk premia.
- Asia tech: Follow-through in Samsung/ SK Hynix and KRW-linked flows amid chip price signals.
- Crypto-beta: If Bitcoin’s rebound sustains and spills over into broader risk assets.
FAQ
How could Canada’s steel tariffs affect the Canadian dollar?
Tariffs can lift input costs and stoke inflation while dampening growth. That mix tends to increase CAD volatility as traders reassess the rate path and real yields. Watch CPI-sensitive sectors and any signs of pass-through to consumer prices.
Why does Russian economic weakness matter for FX and commodities?
Russia’s falling oil revenue, higher inflation, and sectoral slumps raise recession risk, which can influence oil supply decisions and price volatility. That, in turn, affects energy-sensitive currencies and broader risk appetite.
What could move AUD and NZD in the upcoming Asia session?
New Zealand and Australian data on Thursday can shift RBA/RBNZ expectations and front-end rate differentials. In thinner liquidity, even modest surprises can drive outsized moves in AUD/NZD crosses.
How does the chip shortage impact markets beyond tech stocks?
Rising memory prices can boost margins for suppliers like Samsung and SK Hynix, lifting equities and potentially supporting KRW flows. But higher component costs could also feed global inflation, complicating central bank paths and FX pricing.
Does Bitcoin’s rebound have implications for traditional FX?
Crypto rallies can lift overall risk sentiment, occasionally spilling into pro-cyclical FX and equities. However, the correlation is unstable; traditional FX remains primarily driven by rates, growth, and commodity dynamics.
This article was prepared by BPayNews.
Last updated on November 26th, 2025 at 09:06 pm
