Headline: Macro Jitters and Crypto Slide as Unemployment Hits 4.4% and Fed Cut Bets Fade
Key Takeaways
A mixed set of economic signals is rippling across markets. A softer U.S. labor print alongside rising unemployment has cooled hopes for imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts, adding to risk-off sentiment that has hammered digital assets. In Asia, traders are watching Japan’s October inflation data due Friday, which could sharpen bets on a December Bank of Japan rate hike.
U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by 119,000 while the unemployment rate inched up to 4.4%, a combination that complicates the policy outlook. With government shutdown risks back in focus, some economists warn GDP could slide by roughly 1.5% if fiscal disruptions materialize, further muddying the growth trajectory. Household finances also face mixed signals: the latest Social Security cost-of-living adjustment lifts average monthly benefits by about $56, but higher Medicare Part B premiums—up $17.90—will erode part of that gain. Together, the backdrop has tempered expectations for near-term Fed easing.
In Asia, attention turns to Japan’s October CPI on Friday, November 21, 2025. If nationwide inflation echoes the firmer Tokyo CPI seen earlier in the month, it could intensify calls for the BOJ to move in December, with implications for the yen, yields, and global rate differentials. That prospect adds another layer of uncertainty for global asset prices already contending with shifting U.S. rate cut odds.
Risk aversion hit crypto hard: Bitcoin tumbled about 14% with Ethereum and Solana also sliding, as investors reassessed liquidity and policy risk. On the industry front, Ripio said it manages a crypto treasury exceeding 0 million—among the largest in Latin America—built on long-held BTC and ETH positions and activity across networks such as Polygon and zkSync. Investor commentary was cautious: Ray Dalio reportedly keeps roughly 1% in bitcoin, flags quantum-computing risks to cryptography, favors gold, and warns the U.S. economy is mostly in bubble territory. In energy and tech, Saudi Aramco announced more than $120 billion in U.S. agreements as it pivots toward LNG and artificial intelligence, though much depends on converting MOUs into binding deals amid geopolitical uncertainty.
Key Points: – U.S. payrolls rose by 119,000 while unemployment increased to 4.4%, cooling near-term Federal Reserve rate cut expectations. – Shutdown concerns resurface; some forecasts caution GDP could fall by around 1.5% if disruptions occur. – Japan’s October CPI is due Friday and may bolster bets on a December BOJ rate hike. – Bitcoin fell roughly 14%, with Ethereum and Solana lower, as risk appetite weakened. – Ripio reports a crypto treasury above $100 million, with long-term BTC/ETH holdings and activity on Polygon and zkSync. – Ray Dalio highlights quantum risks to crypto, prefers gold, and warns of bubble conditions; Aramco outlines $120B+ in U.S. LNG and AI-focused deals.
