In brief
- Odds of Bitcoin and Ethereum price bumps are rising on prediction markets, even if sentiment remains bearish.
- Despite the price jumps this week, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index still says the market is in “Extreme Fear.”
- While near-term traders may be leaning bullish, they still don’t expect new all-time highs this year for BTC or ETH.
Crypto traders have become more optimistic about the near-term price movements in Bitcoin and Ethereum, prediction market data shows—but overall market sentiment is still in the gutter.
Odds on Myriad’s prediction market—which is operated byDecrypt’s parent company, Dastan—have swung more than 20% in the last few days in favor of a “pump” to $84,000 for Bitcoin before it dumps down to $55,000.
That move coincides with the top crypto asset’s significant rebound from below $63,000 on Tuesday to more than $69,000 on Wednesday. The price of Bitcoin currently sits at $67,137, as of this writing.
However, participants still point to a drop to $55,000 before a jump, giving the plunge roughly 56% odds as of this writing.
The same is true for Ethereum, which jumped from around $1,815 earlier this week to over $2,100 on Wednesday—more than a 15% gain. The move swung the corresponding Myriad pump and dump market around the same amount in favor of a move to $3,000, slimming odds of a “dump” to around 62.5%. Ethereum currently sits at $2,023.
Yet, amid price rebounds and shifting prediction market sentiment, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index—which analyzes emotion and sentiment in the crypto market—still sits in “Extreme Fear.”
The index, which uses data points from social media, crypto volatility, and market momentum, has been stuck at that level for nearly all of February as prices began their rapid decline at the beginning of the month.
The bubbling disconnect between prediction market traders and market sentiment is evident on other prediction market platforms as well.
Predictors on Kalshi now give Bitcoin just a 66% chance of dropping below $55,000 this year—a 10% drop in the last week. Similarly, odds of a more considerable fall for Ethereum—a drop below $1,500—fell 10% as well, now sitting at just 63% on Kalshi.
However, while trader sentiment has swung with the prices in the last few days, recent expert analysis has still warned of more pain ahead of potentially bigger gains.
For example, CryptoQuant analysis points to a real bear-market bottom for Bitcoin around $55,000, and Standard Chartered says ETH will hit $1,400 and BTC will drop to $50,000 before the assets begin their true, respective rebounds.
How high might those rebounds be? While predictors have become slightly more bullish in recent days, they still don’t have new all-time highs in sight. On Polymarket, predictors give both Bitcoin and Ethereum just a 19% chance of reaching a high mark by the end of 2026.
Bitcoin and Ethereum were recently trading about 47% and 59% off their 2025 all-time highs, respectively.
Daily Debrief Newsletter
Start every day with the top news stories right now, plus original features, a podcast, videos and more.
Context
Current positioning around Market Analysis remains sensitive to primary-source updates, policy interpretation, and execution risk across major venues.
What To Watch
Key confirmation signals include sustained spot demand, funding stability, and whether price can hold reclaimed levels after headline-driven volatility.
If momentum weakens, traders will likely prioritize downside liquidity zones and risk-control positioning before adding new directional exposure.
