Dollar steadies as traders eye US JOLTS and ADP for fresh read on labor cooling
The dollar and Treasury yields are poised for directional tests as the US Job Openings (JOLTS) report and ADP employment data land in a thin calendar day for Europe. With job openings expected to ease further and Fed guidance due tomorrow, FX volatility may build into the North American session.
Quiet Europe, US data in focus
Europe’s docket is sparse beyond Germany’s trade balance, which is unlikely to shift European Central Bank expectations or market pricing. The spotlight instead turns to the US, where ADP employment and October JOLTS are set to refine the labor-cooling narrative that has underpinned the recent pullback in yields and the softer dollar trend.
Consensus points to a further decline in US job openings to about 7.15 million from 7.23 million, extending the downtrend in labor demand. While JOLTS is backward-looking, it remains closely watched for its implications on wage pressures and service-sector inflation. Recent ADP prints have softened, dovetailing with last week’s weaker monthly payroll reading and reinforcing a slower labor market backdrop.
Why it matters for FX and risk
For FX traders, another leg down in openings would support a “lower-for-longer” yields bias, typically pressuring the dollar against G10 peers and underpinning risk sentiment. A surprise rebound, however, could revive hawkish repricing at the margin and see USD/JPY re-test higher on yield differentials, while capping EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
Liquidity could be patchy ahead of tomorrow’s Fed communication and next week’s NFP/CPI, increasing the risk of outsized moves on headline surprises. Equities and credit should take their cue from rate expectations: softer labor data would likely be equity-friendly, while a firmer read could nudge yields higher and cool risk appetite.
Central bank speakers
- 08:00 GMT / 03:00 ET — ECB’s Nagel (voter)
- 09:00 GMT / 04:00 ET — BoJ Governor Ueda (voter)
- 14:15 GMT / 09:15 ET — BoE members at Treasury Select Committee
- 19:10 GMT / 14:10 ET — RBNZ Governor Breman
What to watch
- US JOLTS expected to ease to ~7.15M from 7.23M, reinforcing labor-demand cooling.
- ADP employment offers a near-term read; recent softness aligns with weaker payrolls.
- Thin European calendar; German trade unlikely to sway ECB or the euro.
- Fed guidance tomorrow and next week’s NFP/CPI are the bigger catalysts for rates and USD.
- USD path hinges on yields: weaker labor data favors EUR/USD, GBP/USD; upside risk for USD/JPY if data surprises firm.
Market setup and trading lens
Rates: Front-end yields remain most sensitive to labor-slowing signals; curve bull-steepening risk if openings surprise lower. FX: Beta currencies (AUD, NZD, NOK) could catch a bid on softer US data if risk holds; safe-haven USD support returns if labor demand rebounds. Equities: Growth-sensitive sectors stand to benefit from further disinflation signals; any upside labor surprise may pressure duration-heavy names.
Into the Fed and next week’s macro heavyweights, positioning discipline is key. Many systematic and discretionary accounts have already pivoted toward disinflation trades—leaving asymmetry if data re-accelerate unexpectedly, BPayNews notes.
FAQ
When is the US JOLTS report released?
JOLTS typically prints at 10:00 ET (15:00 GMT). Today’s release covers October and is considered a lagging, but influential, gauge of labor demand.
Why does JOLTS matter for currencies?
Fewer openings suggest easing wage pressure and disinflation momentum, which can push Treasury yields lower and weigh on the US dollar. A stronger-than-expected print can do the opposite by nudging rate expectations higher.
How market-moving is ADP compared with NFP?
ADP can set the tone intraday but is less reliable than nonfarm payrolls as a predictor. Markets treat it as directional color rather than a definitive guide.
Which central bank speakers could move markets today?
Comments from ECB’s Nagel and BoJ’s Ueda are in focus, with UK rate signals from the BoE’s Treasury Committee appearance. The RBNZ’s Breman rounds out the slate later in the day.
What are the key macro events after today?
Fed guidance arrives tomorrow, followed by next week’s US nonfarm payrolls and CPI—both pivotal for rate expectations, yields, and the dollar’s path into year-end.
Last updated on December 10th, 2025 at 01:16 am
