Dollar steadies as Fed cut hopes fade; Nvidia jumps on China chip reports as gold cools and Bitcoin whipsaws
Risk appetite faltered as traders trimmed near‑term Federal Reserve cut bets, lifting the US dollar and Treasury yields while nudging global stocks lower. Tech outperformed on reports of fresh China chip approvals for Nvidia, even as scrutiny over ASML’s China sales revived geopolitical risk. Gold paused after a blockbuster year, and Bitcoin’s sharp swings kept crypto volatility elevated.
Markets at a glance: Rates, dollar and risk tone
The Dow slipped as investors reassessed the odds of imminent Fed easing, a shift that typically supports the greenback and pressures duration-heavy equities. A firmer US dollar weighed on major peers, with high-beta and commodity-linked currencies underperforming as equity volatility crept higher. Traders described a classic late-cycle mix: higher real yields, resilient US data, and fading policy support anchoring the dollar bid while compressing risk appetite.
Tech and geopolitics: Nvidia rallies; ASML faces fresh questions
Nvidia rose roughly 2–3% after reports indicated the company secured approvals to sell certain H200 AI chips into China under revised specifications. The headline was enough to buoy broader AI sentiment in an otherwise cautious tape, with investors reading it as a marginal easing of export overhang risks.
By contrast, Europe’s semiconductor supply chain stayed in focus. ASML shares were eyed after renewed media scrutiny of sales to Chinese customers amid allegations of military links. The company reiterated it complies with export-control laws. For macro traders, the ASML story underscores a persistent tail risk: tighter tech controls could dampen capex cycles, reshape global supply chains, and inject new volatility into European equities and the euro.
Gold consolidates after a powerful run
After surging more than 60% in 2025, gold cooled as higher real yields and a firmer dollar curtailed momentum. The World Gold Council flagged a base case for a largely flat 2026 but highlighted unusually wide scenario bands: tail risks—from policy missteps to geopolitical shocks—could still drive a 30% rally or a 20% drawdown. Positioning in ETFs remains light versus historical peaks, leaving room for flows in either direction as rate path clarity emerges.
Crypto: Bitcoin’s correlation to AI sticks
Bitcoin traded near $89,000, well below its $126,000 peak, with desks citing an exchange‑traded fund cohort cost basis around $83,000 and tactical demand clustered around the $90,000 area. The coin’s recent swings have tracked AI‑linked equities more closely, with traders warning that a hawkish Fed surprise could push annual performance negative. Still, bulls argue that risk/reward skews higher if policy avoids a hard landing and ETF inflows remain resilient.
FX takeaways
– The dollar benefited from firmer US yields and softer rate‑cut pricing.
– Euro and yen struggled as relative policy divergence favored the US.
– Commodity FX lagged as equities wobbled and growth‑sensitive trades de‑risked.
– Front‑end rate expectations remain the key driver; any dovish surprise could flip the dollar lower and re‑ignite carry appetite.
– Near term, traders are watching US data and Fed speak for confirmation that the easing timeline is slipping.
Key Points
- US stocks softened while Treasury yields rose, lifting the dollar as markets pared back near‑term Fed cut bets.
- Nvidia gained about 2–3% on reports of approvals to sell adjusted H200 AI chips to China, buoying AI sentiment.
- ASML’s China sales faced renewed scrutiny; the firm stressed compliance with export laws, keeping geopolitical risk in play.
- Gold consolidated after a strong 2025; WGC sees a flat 2026 base case with wide upside/downside scenarios.
- Bitcoin hovered near $89,000, with a cited ETF cohort cost basis around $83,000 and growing correlation to AI stocks.
- FX saw a stronger dollar versus euro, yen and high‑beta FX as risk appetite cooled and implied vols edged higher.
What to watch
– US data and Fed commentary for confirmation of a slower easing path.
– AI‑linked earnings and guidance for signs of capex resilience or fatigue.
– Any escalation in tech export controls impacting European semis and the euro.
– Gold’s sensitivity to real yields and exchange‑rate moves.
– Crypto ETF flows and whether $90k remains a pivot for Bitcoin positioning.
FAQ
Why did the dollar strengthen?
The dollar rose as traders dialed back expectations for imminent Fed rate cuts, pushing US yields higher and improving the greenback’s carry and relative growth appeal versus the euro and yen.
How do Nvidia headlines affect broader markets and FX?
Positive Nvidia news tends to lift AI sentiment and tech-heavy indices. When equities stabilize and risk appetite improves, high‑beta currencies often benefit; in risk‑off conditions, the opposite holds and the dollar typically gains.
What’s the near‑term outlook for gold?
Gold is consolidating after a large year‑to‑date rally. With real yields firm and the dollar stronger, momentum has cooled. The medium‑term path hinges on the pace of Fed easing and geopolitical risk—both could quickly reprice the metal.
Why is Bitcoin moving with AI stocks?
Both trades are sensitive to liquidity and growth expectations. When investors rotate into high‑beta tech on improving growth or easing hopes, crypto often rallies alongside; hawkish rate repricing tends to pressure both.
Could ASML’s China scrutiny hit the euro?
Yes. Heightened export‑control risks for European chipmakers can weigh on regional equities and risk sentiment, indirectly pressuring the euro, especially if US assets outperform on growth and yields.
What are the key risks for markets now?
A stickier inflation pulse delaying Fed cuts, tighter tech export controls, and signs of AI capex fatigue. Any of these could reinforce dollar strength and keep risk assets choppy, BPayNews notes.
