Oil slides 2% as crude futures settle at $58.88, momentum turns lower beneath key averages
Crude futures fell sharply into the close, settling at $58.88, down $1.20 (-2.0%), after sellers pushed prices back below closely watched intraday moving averages, sharpening focus on nearby support levels.
Market snapshot
- Front-month crude futures settled at $58.88, down $1.20 (-2.0%).
- Day’s range: $58.68 low to $60.30 high; recent cycle high near $60.50 on Friday.
- Price slipped back below the 100-hour MA ($59.40) and 200-hour MA ($59.08), inviting momentum selling.
- Immediate support eyed at $58.27–$58.49; a break exposes November lows near $57.10–$57.39.
- Lower oil typically eases headline inflation pressure and can weigh on oil-linked FX such as CAD and NOK.
Price action and technicals
The reversal gathered pace as crude failed to hold above the $60 handle following last week’s pop toward $60.50. Intraday trend gauges flipped bearish with the decisive drop under the 100-hour moving average at $59.40 and the 200-hour at $59.08. The move places the $58.27–$58.49 band in focus; a sustained break would likely embolden bears to probe November’s trough at $57.10–$57.39. On the topside, reclaiming $59.08–$59.40 would be the first sign of stabilization, with $60.00 and last week’s high near $60.50 acting as layered resistance.
Macro context and cross-asset takeaways
The latest downdraft underscores a market still wrestling with uneven demand signals and ongoing uncertainty around supply management. Softer crude prices can filter into inflation expectations, a dynamic that risk assets and rates markets watch closely. For FX, sustained weakness in oil often translates into pressure on energy-sensitive currencies, while importers may see some relief. The broader risk tone remains a key swing factor as traders weigh global growth data, inventory trends, and policy headlines.
Trading outlook
Near term, the path of least resistance leans lower while prices remain capped beneath the $59.08–$59.40 zone. A daily close under $58.27–$58.49 would strengthen downside momentum toward the November base. Conversely, a quick reclaim of the 100/200-hour averages would neutralize some of today’s damage and reopen a test of $60.00–$60.50. As always, liquidity pockets around round numbers could amplify intraday volatility, a feature traders should watch closely, BPayNews notes.
FAQ
What was today’s crude oil settlement price?
Crude oil futures settled at $58.88, down $1.20 or 2.0% on the day.
Which technical levels matter now?
Immediate resistance sits around the 200-hour MA at $59.08 and the 100-hour MA at $59.40, then the $60.00–$60.50 zone. Support is seen at $58.27–$58.49, with November lows at $57.10–$57.39 if that area breaks.
What could drive the next move in oil?
Upcoming U.S. inventory readings, headlines on producer policy, and global growth data are likely catalysts. Shifts in risk appetite and dollar strength can also sway crude in the short term.
How might this impact forex markets?
Lower oil prices tend to pressure energy-linked currencies like the Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone, while easing headline inflation can influence rate expectations and broader FX positioning.
What are the risks to the downside and upside?
Downside risk intensifies on a clean break below $58.27–$58.49 toward $57.10–$57.39. Upside risk builds if bulls retake $59.08–$59.40 and reclaim the $60 handle, which would reduce bearish momentum and put $60.50 back in play.
