Dollar firms as Asia stocks split on Fed jitters; China export rebound masks deep U.S. slump; oil edges higher
Traders kept risk on a short leash ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate decision, with Asian equities mixed, the dollar steady, and crude oil firmer. A rebound in China’s November exports contrasted with a sharp drop in shipments to the U.S., while a private survey showing a 32,000 decline in U.S. private payrolls stoked caution on the growth outlook.
Market snapshot
- U.S. dollar steady as traders await the Fed; risk-sensitive FX stays rangebound.
- Asian equities mixed amid Fed uncertainty and renewed Japan–China tensions.
- China exports rose 5.9% in November, but shipments to the U.S. fell 29%.
- Private U.S. payrolls declined by 32,000 in November, underscoring small-business pressures.
- Crude oil advanced; soybeans ticked up but remain near 2020 lows despite fresh farm aid.
- U.S. stock futures flat after two winning weeks; S&P 500 near record territory.
- Retail earnings beats buoyed sentiment in pockets: Ulta Beauty +12.7%, Victoria’s Secret (VSCO) +18%.
- Crypto watch: Coinbase plans a 2026 India fiat on-ramp despite a 30% crypto tax; partner CoinDCX valued at $2.45 billion.
FX: Dollar resilience as rate path and growth risks collide
The greenback held a modest bid as traders weighed a softer U.S. private payrolls print against the risk that the Fed leans hawkish on inflation stickiness. With liquidity thinning into year-end, positioning skewed toward caution kept implied FX volatility subdued, but safe-haven demand supported the dollar against the yen and selective Asian currencies.
– USD/JPY: Sensitive to front-end yields and risk appetite. Any perceived pushback from the Fed against imminent rate cuts could keep yen on the defensive. Conversely, a dovish surprise would favor yen strength if U.S. yields slip.
– AUD/CNH: China’s mixed trade picture is a headwind. Overall export growth helps sentiment, but a 29% plunge in U.S.-bound shipments flags demand and supply-chain shifts, tempering upside for China-linked FX and the Aussie.
– EUR/GBP: Rangebound as focus stays on the Fed. Mildly better risk appetite could favor the euro, but divergent growth trajectories limit follow-through.
Fed decision: Cuts in 2025 priced, but timing is the wildcard
Futures indicate markets are braced for a steady Fed today/this week, but the path of 2025 easing is in flux after the private payrolls data showed a 32,000 decline, particularly among smaller firms facing rising costs. Traders will parse the statement tone and press conference for clues on:
– How much additional disinflation the Fed needs to see to start cutting.
– Labor-market resilience and potential pockets of weakness (small business layoffs).
– Balance sheet runoff pace and implications for market liquidity.
Any pushback against early or aggressive cuts would likely lift front-end yields and the dollar, pressuring equities and high-beta FX. A softer tone could reinforce the year-end risk rally.
Asia equities mixed as geopolitics and China trade nuance bite
Regional stocks were uneven amid reports of renewed Japan–China tensions and the mixed signal from China’s trade data. While headline exports rebounded 5.9% year-on-year, the deep drop in U.S.-bound shipments underscores re-shoring and supply-chain diversification—trends that can cap upside for Asia’s trade bellwethers and weigh on the yuan, won, and Taiwan dollar. Investors are watching China’s advanced manufacturing sectors for signs of sustained momentum.
Commodities: Oil steadies, soybeans flicker on policy and trade hopes
Crude prices inched higher, helped by cautious risk-on sentiment and ongoing supply discipline. Higher oil can complicate the inflation outlook, supporting the dollar and commodity-linked FX like the CAD and NOK when prices hold gains.
Soybeans ticked up on optimism around trade and a new $12 billion U.S. farm support package, but benchmarks remain pinned near 2020 lows—reflecting ample supply and uneven global demand. For FX, sustained softness in crop prices can weigh on agriculture-heavy EM currencies, while any trade thaw could provide selective relief.
Equities: Earnings beats vs. macro caution
In the U.S., futures were flat as investors balanced strong retail earnings against macro uncertainty. Ulta Beauty and Victoria’s Secret jumped 12.7% and 18%, respectively, on earnings, a sign that discretionary demand pockets persist even as smaller firms confront cost pressures. After two positive weeks, major benchmarks are hovering near record levels, increasing sensitivity to the Fed tone and the next wave of labor and inflation data.
Crypto: Coinbase eyes India scale-up despite tax drag
Coinbase’s plan to re-enter India with a fiat on-ramp targeted for 2026, alongside a partner valued at $2.45 billion, highlights the long-horizon view on the world’s largest emerging retail market—even under a 30% crypto tax regime. While not a direct macro driver, the development speaks to improving risk appetite on the fringes of the market.
What to watch next
– Fed decision and press conference: tone on inflation progress and timing of first cuts.
– U.S. labor and inflation prints for confirmation of cooling growth without a hard landing.
– China’s high-tech and new-energy export momentum versus continued U.S. demand softness.
– Oil supply updates and inventory data for clues on inflation pass-through.
This article was produced by BPayNews.
FAQ
How could the Fed decision move the U.S. dollar?
A hawkish hold that downplays early 2025 cuts would likely lift front-end Treasury yields and the dollar, pressuring equities and high-beta FX. A more dovish tone could weaken the dollar and support risk assets.
What does China’s export rebound mean for FX markets?
Headline growth supports sentiment, but the 29% drop in U.S.-bound shipments highlights ongoing demand and supply-chain challenges. That mix tends to cap upside for the yuan and weigh on trade-sensitive currencies like the Aussie and won.
Why are oil prices rising and what does it mean for currencies?
Oil is edging up on cautious risk-on mood and supply discipline. Sustained gains can bolster oil-linked currencies such as the Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone while complicating the inflation outlook for importers.
Do strong retail earnings matter for FX?
Positive earnings in consumer discretionary can lift broader risk appetite, indirectly pressuring the dollar if yields fall. However, FX typically reacts more to macro drivers like rates, growth, and commodity prices.
What does the decline in private U.S. payrolls signal for the Fed?
A 32,000 drop suggests small-business stress and softer labor demand. If corroborated by official data, it could nudge the Fed toward earlier easing. For now, officials are likely to keep flexibility while watching upcoming employment and inflation reports.
