Euro steady as Spain’s services strength lifts Q4 growth prospects; HCOB PMI signals resilient expansion
Spain’s private sector kept expanding at a solid clip in November, with services again leading the way, according to HCOB’s PMI survey. The composite PMI eased to 55.1 from 56.0 but remained firmly in growth territory, underscoring resilient domestic demand, tight capacity and ongoing hiring—factors that help counter eurozone slowdown fears and lend modest support to the euro.
Spain’s PMI snapshot: services-led expansion, softer trade
The latest HCOB readings indicate Spain remains one of the euro area’s brighter spots. Services outperformed manufacturing, supported by robust domestic orders, while overall business activity continued to grow strongly across October and November. Order books in services stayed healthy, though momentum cooled slightly as international trade contracted for the first time in five months.
For markets, the mix points to a still-growing Spanish economy heading into year-end. It puts a floor under risk appetite in European equities and peripheral spreads, even as global growth anxiety lingers.
Jobs and prices: capacity tight, hiring firm, cost pressures sticky
Capacity utilization remains high—companies report difficulty keeping up with workloads—driving additional demand for staff. Hiring intentions are supported by stable business expectations.
On prices, selling-price momentum slowed in November, but cost inflation remains elevated. Firms cited energy and wage bills as the primary sources of pressure. Output prices rose at the slowest pace this year, suggesting some margin squeeze as companies both pass through higher costs and offer discounts to support demand. For the European Central Bank, that combination—resilient activity with sticky input costs but cooling output prices—keeps the path for policy normalization cautious rather than rapid.
FX and rates takeaways
Markets often take single-country PMIs in stride, but Spain’s sustained strength helps temper hard-landing risks for the euro area. The euro is likely to find incremental support on the resilience narrative, though the softening in external demand and still-high cost pressures may cap upside. In rates, Spain’s growth outperformance is a mild positive for Bonos versus Bunds, while front-end rate cut pricing remains sensitive to broader eurozone inflation and wage trends.
Key points
- HCOB Composite PMI for Spain: 55.1 in November vs 56.0 prior, signaling continued solid expansion.
- Services sector outpaced manufacturing, driven by domestic demand; order book momentum eased slightly.
- International trade fell for the first time in five months, weighing on overall momentum at the margin.
- High capacity utilization and steady business expectations are boosting hiring demand.
- Cost inflation remains elevated—mainly energy and wages—while output price growth slowed to the weakest pace this year.
- Implications: supportive for EUR risk sentiment and Spain’s Q4 GDP outlook; ECB path still cautious given sticky input costs.
Market context
– EUR/USD: The data skew is modestly supportive as Spain’s resilience offsets softness elsewhere in Europe; FX volatility should remain data-dependent ahead of upcoming eurozone prints.
– Equities: Spain’s services momentum underpins the domestic outlook and lends a constructive tone to IBEX cyclicals sensitive to internal demand.
– Rates: Peripheral spreads may stay contained if Spain’s outperformance persists, though cross-asset moves hinge on the broader eurozone inflation trajectory and ECB communication.
What to watch next
– Eurozone-wide PMIs and hard data to confirm whether Spain’s domestic demand strength is broadening or isolated.
– Wage growth and energy cost dynamics that could keep input inflation sticky even as output prices cool.
– ECB guidance on the timing and pace of any future rate adjustments; traders will parse forward guidance closely.
FAQ
What does a PMI reading above 50 indicate?
A PMI above 50 signals expansion in business activity compared with the previous month. The higher the number, the stronger the growth impulse; readings below 50 indicate contraction.
How might Spain’s PMI affect the euro?
Resilient Spanish PMIs support the euro by reducing fears of a eurozone hard landing and improving risk sentiment. However, the impact is typically modest unless corroborated by broader euro area data.
Does easing output price inflation change the ECB outlook?
Slower output price growth helps, but elevated input costs—especially from wages and energy—complicate the picture. The ECB is likely to remain cautious, emphasizing incoming inflation and wage data before signaling any policy shifts.
Is Spain an outlier in the euro area?
Spain has been a relative bright spot, with services outperforming manufacturing and domestic demand holding up. That said, weaker external demand and stickier costs pose risks shared across the bloc.
What should traders monitor after this release?
Watch eurozone PMI composites, inflation prints, and ECB communication. For markets, the interplay between wage trends, energy costs, and activity data will drive EUR, rates, and equity sector rotations, BPayNews notes.
