Spain’s Factory Growth Cools as HCOB PMI Slips to 51.5 in November
Spain’s manufacturing sector stayed in expansionary territory in November, but momentum eased as weaker external demand overshadowed steady domestic orders. The HCOB Manufacturing PMI cooled to 51.5 from 52.1, with firms discounting prices and trimming headcount even as production and new orders continued to grow.
Spain’s PMI signals steady but slower momentum
HCOB’s November survey shows Spain’s factories still operating in growth mode, though a notch slower than October. The moderation aligns Spain with a broader eurozone manufacturing deceleration flagged by the bloc’s flash PMI. Beneath the headline, the survey highlights a marked divergence: domestic orders have risen consistently over the past half-year, while export orders have fallen in four of those six months, forcing a more competitive pricing landscape.
Key Points
- HCOB Spain Manufacturing PMI dipped to 51.5 in November from 52.1, remaining above the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction.
- Output and total new orders continued to expand, but at a softer pace than in October.
- Export demand weakened, contrasting with steady domestic order growth; firms reported more intense price competition.
- Manufacturers cut jobs for a third straight month despite broadly favorable operating conditions.
- Purchasing activity rose, pointing to efforts to sustain production and manage pipelines.
- Business expectations stayed slightly above the long-term average, signaling cautious optimism for 2025.
FX and market implications
For the euro, Spain’s PMI reinforces a narrative of uneven eurozone manufacturing momentum, with external trade remaining a drag. While one country’s print rarely shifts policy expectations on its own, the combination of softer exports and price discounting adds to the case for subdued core goods inflation into early 2025—an input that could keep ECB rate-cut speculation alive if echoed across the bloc.
Spanish equities with export-heavy exposure may face a tougher backdrop if global demand remains muted, even as domestically oriented names benefit from firmer home orders. Sovereign yields and EUR crosses will be sensitive to whether incoming PMIs from Germany, France, and Italy confirm a broader manufacturing slowdown, which would typically bolster bets on earlier or deeper ECB easing.
Exports lag; firms cut prices and jobs
Survey panellists pointed to weaker international demand, with the export orders index slipping below the 50 threshold in most recent months. More aggressive discounting emerged as firms sought to protect volumes. The headcount reduction for a third consecutive month underscores management caution amid Europe’s soft growth, competition from China, and persistent trade frictions.
Why optimism lingers
Despite the cooler headline, purchasing activity rose and business expectations held slightly above average. That mix suggests manufacturers are keeping production lines supplied while avoiding long-term labor commitments—an approach consistent with a fragile but improving demand outlook.
What to watch next
– Eurozone PMIs and hard data on industrial production for confirmation of the regional trend.
– Inventories, backlogs, and pricing components for signs that discounting is stabilizing.
– ECB communications, particularly on the balance between disinflation progress and growth risks.
– Global trade indicators and China’s demand trajectory, key for Spain’s exporters.
FAQ
What is the HCOB Spain Manufacturing PMI and why does 51.5 matter?
The PMI is a diffusion index based on surveys of purchasing managers. A reading above 50 indicates expansion. November’s 51.5 signals Spain’s manufacturing sector is still growing, albeit more slowly than in October.
How does weaker export demand affect Spain’s outlook?
Soft external demand pressures margins and encourages discounting, which can weigh on corporate profits. It also increases the sector’s reliance on domestic spending, creating a more uneven growth profile.
Why are firms cutting jobs while increasing purchases?
Companies appear to be protecting near-term production capacity by buying inputs while staying cautious on staffing. This helps maintain flexibility if orders slow further, and it manages costs in a competitive pricing environment.
What does this mean for the euro and ECB policy expectations?
If Spain’s slowdown is mirrored across the eurozone, it could reinforce expectations for easier ECB policy in 2025. For EUR, that typically means sensitivity to incoming PMIs, inflation prints, and guidance from Frankfurt.
Which sectors could be most exposed?
Export-oriented manufacturers—especially those tied to capital goods and intermediate goods—tend to feel the impact first. Domestically focused producers may fare better as internal demand holds up.
What could improve the manufacturing outlook?
A rebound in global trade, firmer Chinese demand, and easing geopolitical or trade frictions would support exports. Domestically, ongoing resilience in consumption and investment would help offset external weakness.
Reporting by BPayNews.
