NFP blackout: US jobs data delayed to Dec. 16, forcing traders to read the Fed without payrolls
An unusual delay to the US non-farm payrolls will leave markets without the marquee labor report ahead of the Federal Reserve’s final meeting of the year, sharpening focus on policy guidance and front-end rates.
Unscheduled silence on payrolls ahead of the FOMC
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will not publish the customary first-Friday non-farm payrolls. Instead, October and November figures will be bundled and released on December 16, six days after the Fed’s final policy decision. The postponement stems from the government shutdown, which has disrupted data processing and pushed the release outside the usual cycle.
That timing removes the jobs report as a direct input into the Fed’s December deliberations and raises the stakes for the central bank’s forward guidance. Futures imply roughly 92% odds of a December rate cut, putting the burden on communication around the pace and path of easing into next year.
What it means for FX, rates and stocks
Absent NFP, traders expect a quieter-than-usual Friday in FX, with implied vol likely to drift lower into the meeting. The dollar’s immediate direction will hinge on the Fed’s tone: a firmer commitment to easing could keep the greenback heavy against high beta and European FX, while any pushback on the market’s aggressive pricing risks a USD rebound led by the front end of the Treasury curve.
– USD/JPY remains most sensitive to policy-rate differentials and term premium swings.
– EUR/USD may find support if US yields soften, but is vulnerable if the Fed leans against cut expectations.
– Global stocks typically welcome a delayed tightening impulse; however, thin December liquidity can amplify moves post-Fed.
Higher survey response, higher revision risk
According to the BLS, the reporting delay has lifted the establishment survey collection rate to a higher-than-usual 80.2% as more firms self-reported electronically during the shutdown. Historically, unusual collection dynamics have coincided with larger subsequent revisions. Traders should be prepared for outsized back-month adjustments when the combined report finally lands.
Policy calculus without NFP
Without fresh payrolls, the Fed will lean more heavily on weekly jobless claims, ISM employment components, and wage proxies from alternative datasets. That raises the odds of a communication-first strategy: officials may emphasize data dependency and conditional guidance, preserving flexibility until the December 16 release clarifies labor momentum.
Trading calendar to note
– No NFP on the usual first Friday.
– Fed decision and projections at the final FOMC next week.
– Combined October–November jobs data due December 16.
Key points
- US non-farm payrolls delayed; October and November reports will be released together on December 16.
- The combined release arrives six days after the Fed’s final meeting, removing NFP as a direct input to that decision.
- Markets price ~92% odds of a December rate cut; guidance on the 2025 path is the main risk for USD and front-end yields.
- BLS says the establishment survey collection rate rose to 80.2%, implying elevated revision risk.
- FX volatility may stay subdued into the meeting, with USD direction tied to Fed tone rather than headline data.
Market context and scenarios
– If the Fed validates current cut pricing, expect US yields lower at the front end, a softer dollar versus EUR and cyclicals, and a constructive tone for equities and gold.
– If the Fed tempers cut expectations, the curve may bear-flatten, USD could bounce—especially versus JPY—and risk assets may wobble in thin year-end liquidity.
For traders, the delay compresses catalysts into a narrow post-Fed window; positioning discipline and event-risk sizing matter more than usual, BPayNews notes.
FAQ
Why is the US jobs report delayed?
The ongoing government shutdown disrupted the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ processing schedule, pushing back publication and forcing a combined October–November release.
When will the combined jobs data be published?
The BLS plans to release the bundled October and November non-farm payrolls on December 16.
Will the Fed have the jobs data before its December meeting?
No. The Fed’s final meeting occurs six days before the postponed release, meaning policymakers won’t have fresh NFP data in hand for that decision.
How does the delay affect FX markets?
With no NFP shock, near-term USD volatility may be muted. The dollar’s next move is likely to follow the Fed’s tone on the rate path rather than headline labor figures.
What does an 80.2% survey collection rate imply?
A higher-than-usual collection rate can improve initial coverage but also correlates with larger revisions later. Traders should be prepared for outsized back-month adjustments.
What are markets pricing for the December Fed meeting?
Futures imply about a 92% probability of a rate cut. The key risk is whether the Fed endorses or challenges that pricing and how it guides the path into next year.
What should traders watch in the absence of NFP?
Focus on weekly jobless claims, ISM employment components, wage signals from alternative datasets, and—most importantly—the Fed’s statement, projections, and press conference language.
