Bitcoin breaks above 200-hour moving average as bulls target $94k Fibonacci pivot
Bitcoin rebounded sharply after a late-November dip, reclaiming key moving averages and breaking higher in early-week trade. The move puts the 38.2% retracement near $94,229 in view as momentum builds and risk appetite steadies.
Market snapshot
Bitcoin has been grinding higher after bottoming at $80,533 on November 21, reversing a slide from the October 27 peak near $116,381. Price action accelerated as BTC/USD cleared the 200-hour moving average around $87,691, a level that capped rallies in recent sessions.
Technical setup
– The rebound gathered traction once BTC reclaimed its 100-hour moving average over the weekend, turning it into a near-term support base despite brief intrabar dips.
– A clean break above the 200-hour moving average in the latest session unlocked momentum, with buyers quickly pressing toward prior intraday highs.
– The market is now testing and marginally surpassing Monday’s top, with resistance seen around $89,156–$89,222. A sustained close above this pocket strengthens the case for a push toward the 38.2% retracement of the October-to-November decline at $94,229.
– Initial support is layered at the 200-hour moving average (now near $87,691) and then the 100-hour moving average below, keeping short-term structure constructive while those levels hold.
Key points
- Bitcoin broke above the 200-hour moving average near $87,691, signaling improving bullish momentum.
- Price printed new intraday highs near $89,698, with resistance around $89,156–$89,222.
- Upside focus shifts to the 38.2% retracement of the October slide at $94,229.
- Support: 200-hour MA ($87,691) and 100-hour MA, which flipped to a base earlier in the week.
- Momentum holds as long as BTC stays above the 200-hour MA; a break back below risks fading the breakout.
Market context and cross-asset tone
Crypto’s bounce aligns with steadier broader risk sentiment, with traders watching rate expectations and dollar dynamics. A calmer backdrop in FX and Treasuries tends to support higher-beta assets like Bitcoin, though liquidity can thin into late sessions, amplifying moves around technical breakouts. If real yields or the dollar firm abruptly, crypto upside could pause; conversely, a softer dollar and stable rates may keep dip-buying intact.
What to watch next
– Follow-through above $89,222 to confirm control for the bulls.
– Reaction at $94,229 (38.2% retracement) as a potential profit-taking zone.
– Intraday holding of the 200-hour MA to validate the breakout structure.
– Headline risk from macro data and shifts in risk appetite that could sway BTC/USD volatility.
FAQ
Why did Bitcoin rally today?
Bitcoin’s rally was triggered by a clean break above the 200-hour moving average around $87,691, a level that had capped upside. Clearing it invited momentum buying and shorts covering, pushing price to new intraday highs.
What are the next key resistance levels?
Immediate resistance sits around $89,156–$89,222. Above that, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the October-to-November decline at $94,229 is the next notable target.
Where is the near-term support?
The 200-hour moving average near $87,691 is first support, followed by the 100-hour moving average. Holding above these moving averages keeps the near-term bullish structure intact.
What could invalidate the bullish setup?
A decisive move back below the 200-hour and 100-hour moving averages would undermine the breakout and increase the risk of a retest of recent lows, especially if broader risk sentiment weakens.
How do macro factors affect BTC/USD now?
Bitcoin is sensitive to shifts in the U.S. dollar and real yields. Softer yields and a steady-to-weaker dollar typically support crypto. Sudden spikes in yields or risk-off flows can cap BTC upside. Traders should monitor key macro releases and FX volatility.
This analysis was prepared for readers of BPayNews.
Last updated on November 26th, 2025 at 05:51 pm
