RBNZ cuts OCR to 2.25% and hints at end of easing; Kiwi jumps but stalls below 0.57
New Zealand’s central bank delivered another rate cut but signaled it may be the last of the cycle, lifting the New Zealand dollar before gains faded at technical resistance. Traders pivoted from chasing more easing to debating when the Reserve Bank of New Zealand might eventually lift rates again.
Policy decision and guidance
The RBNZ lowered the Official Cash Rate by 25 bps to 2.25%, while highlighting that the Board actively weighed a hold versus a cut at this meeting. Forward guidance turned more neutral: the Bank now projects the OCR to hold around 2.25% into early 2026, edging up to 2.65% by late 2027. That path is lower than previously envisaged but firm enough to suggest the easing phase has largely run its course after more than 300 bps of cuts since August 2024.
The message amounts to a “dovish cut, hawkish lean.” It caters to current growth and inflation dynamics, yet pushes back against expectations for additional near-term easing.
Market reaction: NZD pops, then meets resistance
NZD/USD spiked toward the 0.5700 handle after the statement, with intraday momentum faltering around 0.5690–0.5695—a band aligned with mid-November highs. The inability to clear that cap underscores lingering fragility in the kiwi despite this week’s broader risk-on tone across global equities.
Technically, the pair remains defined by a series of lower highs and lower lows stretching back to July. Bulls will need a decisive break above 0.57 and subsequent follow-through to challenge that bearish structure. Until then, sellers have the trend—and the benefit of proof—on their side.
Why it matters for FX and global risk
The RBNZ’s pivot away from further cuts takes one source of policy divergence off the table for dollar bears, limiting NZD outperformance even as risk sentiment improves. With liquidity conditions steady and FX volatility subdued, the kiwi’s near-term path is likely to hinge on whether global growth optimism can overpower the domestic policy pause and the prevailing downtrend.
For cross-asset investors, a steadier OCR outlook reduces tail risk around further easing and may anchor local rates, but the Bank’s longer-run drift higher into 2027 hints at a gradual normalization if inflation pressures reassert. That keeps tactical USD/NZD trades sensitive to incoming data and the durability of the global risk bid.
Key Points
- RBNZ cuts OCR by 25 bps to 2.25% and signals the move could be the last of the cycle.
- New projections: OCR around 2.25% in early 2026, rising to 2.65% by late 2027.
- Markets pare bets on further near-term easing after more than 300 bps of cumulative cuts since Aug 2024.
- NZD/USD jumped to near 0.5700 but stalled at 0.5690–0.5695 resistance.
- Broader trend still bearish: lower highs/lows since July; bulls need a clean break above 0.57.
Technical view
– Immediate resistance: 0.5690–0.5700 (mid-November highs). A daily close above would challenge the prevailing downtrend and could open room toward subsequent resistance bands.
– Trend context: Lower-high, lower-low structure remains intact on the daily chart, keeping risk skewed to the downside absent a pattern break.
What’s next
Focus turns to upcoming New Zealand inflation indicators and any follow-up RBNZ communication for clarity on the policy pause. Globally, swings in risk appetite will remain pivotal for NZD, with traders eyeing whether improved sentiment can finally lift the pair out of its multi-month down channel, BPayNews notes.
FAQ
What did the RBNZ decide at its latest meeting?
The RBNZ cut the Official Cash Rate by 25 bps to 2.25% and indicated this could be the final cut of the current cycle.
Why did NZD/USD rally on the decision?
While the rate was cut, guidance turned more neutral, signaling no further immediate easing. That shift reduced expectations for additional cuts, supporting the kiwi initially.
What technical levels matter now for NZD/USD?
Resistance sits around 0.5690–0.5700, near mid-November highs. A sustained break above that area would be needed to challenge the broader downtrend defined since July.
Is the easing cycle definitively over?
The Bank implied cuts are likely done, projecting a flat OCR near 2.25% into early 2026 and a gradual move to 2.65% by late 2027. However, future decisions remain data-dependent.
What could change the kiwi’s outlook?
Domestic inflation trends, shifts in global risk appetite, and any surprise in RBNZ communication could all steer NZD direction. A clear break above resistance would also alter the technical picture.
