Dollar Ends Mixed as Fed Cut Bets Firm; Nasdaq Jumps, Yields Ease
The US dollar closed Monday mixed against major peers as traders ramped up expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate cut, lifting risk appetite and pushing the Nasdaq higher while Treasury yields drifted lower into thinner holiday liquidity.
FX moves were uneven: USD gained versus the yen, kiwi and Canadian dollar, but slipped against the euro, pound, Swiss franc and Australian dollar. Equities rallied on easier yield dynamics and constructive geopolitical headlines, with the Nasdaq up 2.69% and the S&P 500 up 1.55%.
FX snapshot and drivers
The greenback’s split performance reflected shifting rate expectations and cross-asset flows. Market-implied odds for a Fed cut next month rose to roughly 70–75% after dovish-leaning commentary from officials including Governor Christopher Waller and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly. Heading into the US Thanksgiving break, liquidity is set to thin, often amplifying intraday moves.
– USD/JPY climbed 0.31% to 156.87 as the policy divergence with the BOJ kept yield differentials favoring the dollar; dip buyers defended the rising 100-hour moving average near 156.7. – EUR/USD edged up 0.08% to 1.1520, holding the 1.15 handle but stalling below a falling 100-hour moving average around 1.1536. ECB’s Joachim Nagel said the euro near $1.16 was not a concern. – GBP/USD added 0.11% to 1.3108, with positioning steady ahead of UK budget details. Intraday levels clustered between the 100-hour MA near 1.309 and the 200-hour MA around 1.312. – USD/CHF dipped 0.05% to 0.8080 as defensive bids in the franc persisted; the pair closed above a nearby support band around 0.8066–0.8076.
Broader USD tone: softer vs EUR, GBP, CHF and AUD; firmer vs JPY, NZD and CAD. Geopolitical headlines around Ukraine offered a modest safe-haven floor for the dollar, tempering deeper weakness.
Stocks rally as yields slip
US equities extended gains on the combination of lower rate expectations and better risk tone. Mega-cap technology led the move, with some bellwethers holding key technical levels intraday—Microsoft shares, for instance, defended their 200-day moving average near $466.89 for a second session.
US rates finished lower across the curve: – 2-year 3.501%, -1.3 bps – 5-year 3.600%, -1.8 bps – 10-year 4.030%, -3.2 bps – 30-year 4.673%, -4.1 bps
Treasury supply was absorbed without drama: the US sold $69 billion in 2-year notes at a high yield of 3.489%, keeping the front end anchored as cut pricing firmed.
Commodities: oil rallies, gold pops, crypto rebounds
Energy and precious metals were bid as yields eased and growth fears moderated: – WTI crude settled at $58.97, up $0.91 (+1.57%) after last week’s 3.3% slide. – Gold jumped $74 (+1.83%) to $4,138.49 as falling real yields supported defensive allocations. – Bitcoin reversed early losses to trade near $88,762, up roughly $2,000 on the day; the session low was $85,225. The token remains below October’s swing high near $125,000.
Macro pulse and policy chatter
US industrial production was revised to -0.1% from 0.1% prior, with capacity utilization also revised lower—data consistent with a cooling growth impulse into year-end. The Dallas Fed manufacturing index fell to -10.40 from -5.00, signaling ongoing weakness in regional factory activity.
On the policy front, comments from Fed officials reinforced a dovish tilt into December, while the White House said US-Ukraine talks were productive. Kremlin aide Ushakov noted several provisions of a US-drafted Ukraine peace proposal seemed acceptable. China’s state media reported President Xi spoke with former US President Donald Trump, who said he accepted an invitation to visit Beijing in April. In Europe, EU’s Maroš Šefčovič said a team would head to Washington to address outstanding issues. The White House plans to delay a healthcare proposal, according to officials.
Market Highlights – Nasdaq +2.69%; S&P 500 +1.55% – December Fed cut odds near 70–75% – USD mixed: USD/JPY 156.87; EUR/USD 1.1520; GBP/USD 1.3108; USD/CHF 0.8080 – US 10-year yield 4.030% (-3.2 bps); 2-year auction $69bn at 3.489% – WTI $58.97 (+1.57%); Gold $4,138 (+1.83%) – Bitcoin around $88,762 after reversing from $85,225 intraday low
Europe and cross-asset context
European equities closed mixed, with France’s CAC 40 and Italy’s FTSE MIB softer into the close. In FX, the euro’s resilience aligned with subdued European rate volatility and the ECB’s steady-handed guidance. With Thanksgiving approaching, positioning into month-end and lighter turnover could heighten FX volatility on any surprise economic prints or headlines.
What traders are asking
Q: Why did the dollar finish mixed? A: Diverging drivers—rising Fed cut odds and lower yields weighed on the dollar versus Europe, while persistent US–Japan policy divergence supported USD/JPY. Geopolitical risk limited deeper USD selling.
Q: What’s priced for the December FOMC? A: Roughly a 70–75% probability of a 25 bp cut, according to market-implied rates, following dovish-leaning remarks from senior Fed officials.
Q: Which FX levels matter in the near term? A: USD/JPY near 157.00 with support around the 100-hour MA; EUR/USD pivoting around 1.15–1.1540; GBP/USD hugging 1.309–1.312 moving-average bands.
Q: What could move markets next? A: US data revisions, additional Fedspeak, headline risk on Ukraine diplomacy and US–China engagement, plus month-end flows in thin Thanksgiving-week liquidity.
This article was prepared for global FX and macro readers of BPayNews.
