EUR/USD Slips as Failed Break Above 100-Hour Moving Average Restores Bearish Control
EUR/USD retreated after an early attempt to reclaim the 100-hour moving average failed, flipping near-term momentum back in favor of sellers and tilting risk appetite toward defensive positioning.
Technical Picture: Rejection at Key Intraday Resistance – The pair briefly pierced the 100-hour moving average near 1.15397 and a defined swing zone at 1.1541–1.1546, but the move lacked follow-through. The rejection underscores a fragile bid and aligns with typical post-failure dynamics, where price action often rotates back toward prior supports. – With the break failing, the 100-hour MA and 1.1541–1.1546 are now risk-defining resistance. Below these thresholds, bears retain the tactical upper hand and intraday rallies are prone to fade.
Support Levels in Focus – Price has rotated toward the prior Friday close at 1.1512, with a session low printed near 1.1516. – A clean break of 1.1512 exposes a cluster of nearby supports: – 1.1503, the low from last Thursday – 1.1500, a psychological handle and recent intraday pivot – 1.1490, the low from last week – A sustained drop through 1.1490 would open progression toward lower weekly supports and could lift FX volatility from subdued levels as stops are triggered.
What Flips the Bias – The immediate bearish bias would be neutralized by a decisive reclaim and hourly close above 1.1546, with the 100-hour MA turning from resistance back into support. Until then, the path of least resistance remains lower, with liquidity flows skewed toward defensive USD positioning. – In BPayNews’ view, the 1.1541–1.1546 zone is the pivotal line for the session: below it, selling pressure is likely to persist; above it, risk-reward for shorts deteriorates quickly.
Market Highlights – EUR/USD rejected at 100-hour MA (1.15397) and 1.1541–1.1546 swing zone. – Pullback targets prior Friday close at 1.1512; session low seen near 1.1516. – Next supports: 1.1503, 1.1500 (psychological), 1.1490 (last week’s low). – Bearish bias intact while below 1.1546; a break above would challenge shorts.
Quick Q&A Q: Why did EUR/USD reverse intraday? A: A failed break above the 100-hour moving average and a nearby swing zone signaled exhaustion of the rally, prompting sellers to reassert control.
Q: What levels are critical now? A: Support at 1.1512, then 1.1503/1.1500 and 1.1490. Resistance is defined at 1.1541–1.1546 and the 100-hour MA.
Q: What would invalidate the bearish setup? A: A sustained move and hourly close above 1.1546, turning the 100-hour MA into support and easing downside pressure.
Q: How are traders likely to approach the pair intraday? A: Bias favors selling rallies below 1.1546 with tight risk control, while watching for a break of 1.1512 to confirm follow-through toward 1.1500/1.1490.
