Headline: Yen Stays on the Back Foot as BOJ Tightening Bets Rise; China Eyes Property Aid, U.S. Pushes Back on Chip Curbs
Introduction: Global markets opened the week navigating shifting policy signals: expectations for tighter Bank of Japan policy are hardening even as the yen weakens, Beijing considers fresh measures to shore up housing, and Washington seeks to head off new limits on AI chip exports. FX traders are also watching option expiries that could amplify intraday moves.
Japan remains the focal point for currency markets. A recent survey of economists shows a narrow majority now expects the Bank of Japan to lift its policy rate to 0.75% in December, with virtually all forecasters seeing at least that level by the end of the first quarter. Yet the yen’s slide persists, raising risks of imported inflation even as next year’s wage growth is projected near 4.9%. Some analysts warn USD/JPY could stretch toward 160 despite incremental BOJ hikes, increasing the odds of official intervention. Tokyo has stepped up verbal warnings against “sharp, one-sided” moves and last intervened around ¥162 in July 2024. Softer oil prices may temper inflation pressures, but the currency remains vulnerable.
In China, policymakers are weighing a new round of stimulus to stabilize a weakening property market, including potential nationwide mortgage subsidies, larger tax rebates, and lower transaction costs. The prospect of support lifted real-estate shares as investors looked for more durable demand-side measures to restore confidence and liquidity in the sector. Meanwhile in the United States, the White House is urging lawmakers to resist additional export restrictions aimed at advanced chips sold to China, a decision that could influence Nvidia’s global revenue outlook and broader AI hardware supply chains.
Beyond policy headlines, traders are monitoring notable FX option expiries at the 10 a.m. New York cut on 20 November that could sway spot price action. In Australia, the Reserve Bank cautioned against overreacting to volatile monthly inflation prints, noting structural shifts that have complicated the case for further easing. Together, these signals underscore a market environment where central-bank paths, currency dynamics, and targeted policy tools continue to drive cross-asset positioning.
Key Points: – Majority of economists now expect the BOJ to raise rates to 0.75% in December; most see at least that level by end-Q1. – Yen remains weak, heightening imported-inflation risks despite projected wage growth near 4.9% next year. – Analysts warn USD/JPY could approach 160; Japan has escalated verbal intervention and last stepped in near ¥162 in July 2024. – China is considering mortgage subsidies, larger tax rebates, and lower transaction costs to support the property market. – The White House is pressing Congress to oppose new export curbs targeting AI chips to China, with implications for Nvidia’s sales. – FX option expiries at the 10 a.m. New York cut on 20 November and RBA caution on volatile inflation add to market drivers.
