Headline: BOJ Signals December Rate Hike as Yen Slide Stokes Inflation Concerns
Japan’s central bank may be edging toward another interest rate increase this month, as a fresh poll of economists points to growing expectations for tighter monetary policy. With the yen weakening sharply and inflation pressures lingering, the Bank of Japan could act at its December 18–19 meeting to lift the policy rate from 0.50% to 0.75%.
A slim majority of surveyed economists now anticipate a December move, reflecting concerns that the yen’s renewed decline—touching a 10-month low against the U.S. dollar and a record low versus the euro—could intensify imported inflation. The BOJ last raised rates by 25 basis points in January, and all economists who weighed in on the outlook see the policy rate at a minimum of 0.75% by the end of the first quarter of 2026. The combination of currency weakness and sticky price pressures is keeping the central bank’s tightening bias intact.
Wage dynamics are also central to the outlook. Economists expect next spring’s labor negotiations to deliver average pay increases of around 4.9%, moderating from this year’s 5.25% but still underpinned by robust corporate earnings. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has emphasized that the outcome of these wage talks will be crucial for the timing and pace of additional rate hikes, making labor momentum a key gauge for policy decisions.
While government officials have urged the BOJ to calibrate policy carefully in line with a reflation strategy, economists generally view underlying domestic demand as resilient. Japan’s recent GDP contraction is widely seen as driven by temporary factors, suggesting the broader recovery remains intact even as the central bank weighs further normalization.
Key Points: – Majority of economists expect the BOJ to raise rates to 0.75% at the December 18–19 meeting. – Yen weakness to multi-month and record lows versus major currencies is amplifying imported inflation risks. – All surveyed economists see the policy rate at least at 0.75% by end-Q1 2026. – Wage growth in spring negotiations is forecast around 4.9%, down from 5.25% this year but supported by solid earnings. – Governor Kazuo Ueda says spring wage talks will be pivotal for future rate decisions. – Government urges caution as economists judge underlying demand to be firm despite a recent GDP dip.
