Headline: Risk-Off Sentiment Deepens as Fed Cut Odds Fade; Crypto and Tech Lead the Slide
Introduction: Global markets turned sharply lower as expectations for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts were slashed, igniting a broad risk-off move across equities and digital assets. Volatility spiked, cyclical optimism cooled, and investors reassessed positioning amid policy uncertainty and patchy economic data.
Equities fell as the probability of a Fed pivot was cut roughly in half, pushing the S&P 500 down 1.66% while the VIX jumped about 20%. The Dow shed around 800 points as hopes tied to short-term policy relief faded and investors rotated away from high-beta tech. Market participants pointed to lingering data gaps and conflicting macro signals that cloud the outlook for growth, rates, and earnings.
Crypto markets amplified the risk aversion. Bitcoin briefly slipped below the $98,000 mark and later traded near $95,000 amid exchange-traded fund outflows, triggering an estimated $1.1 billion in liquidations. Ether fell roughly 9% and major altcoins declined 8–12%, while crypto miners and related equities were hit hard. Despite the volatility, options pricing suggested limited signs of outright panic, with Bitcoin remaining the anchor for sentiment across digital assets.
Trade policy added another layer of uncertainty. Tariff refund claims reportedly changed hands at 10–25 cents on the dollar as protracted legal processes and delayed payouts cap potential returns. Meanwhile, Switzerland mounted a diplomatic push to ease 39% tariffs, with backing from influential business leaders and a major luxury brand owner. In the corporate landscape, semiconductor dynamics stayed in focus as AMD targeted up to 50% share in server CPUs, underscoring competitive pressure on Intel and the risk of further market share erosion.
Key Points: – Fed rate cut odds fell sharply, sending the S&P 500 down 1.66% and lifting the VIX about 20% – The Dow dropped roughly 800 points as risk appetite faded and tech shares were sold – Bitcoin slid below $98,000 (near $95,000 later), with about $1.1 billion in crypto liquidations; ETH fell around 9% – Major cryptocurrencies dropped 8–12% amid ETF outflows; miners and related stocks declined – Tariff refund claims traded at 10–25 cents on the dollar due to legal hurdles and lengthy payouts – Switzerland lobbied to reduce 39% tariffs; AMD’s push toward 50% server CPU share highlights risk for Intel
