Headline: EUR/USD Extends Gains as Markets Weigh Fed Path and US Jobs Data
The US dollar softened this week even as the probability of a December interest rate cut eased, leaving investors focused on the Federal Reserve’s next steps and upcoming US economic releases. With market pricing pointing to roughly even odds of a December move, incoming data will likely drive short-term direction across the forex market.
Attention now shifts to US labor data ahead of the December FOMC meeting. A soft September nonfarm payrolls print may carry limited weight given its lagging nature, but a stronger reading could signal momentum was improving even before recent rate cuts. The November jobs report is poised to be the pivotal release ahead of the meeting, particularly with the November CPI unlikely to arrive in time. Across the Atlantic, the European Central Bank kept policy unchanged and reiterated that the current stance is appropriate, emphasizing it will not react to minor deviations from its 2% inflation goal. Recent Eurozone indicators—including rebounding PMIs and core inflation holding at 2.4% year over year—support the ECB’s steady-hand approach.
Technically, EUR/USD remains constructive. The pair broke above a major daily trendline and advanced toward the 1.1650 area, keeping bullish momentum intact. On the four-hour chart, an ascending trendline continues to define the uptrend; dip buyers are likely to defend this line with tight risk below it, while a clear break would invite a deeper pullback. Intraday, traders are watching for bounces near trend support and monitoring the day’s average range bands to gauge potential entries and exits.
Key Points: – USD weakens despite reduced odds of a December Fed rate cut; markets await key US data – December cut odds hover near 50%, putting added emphasis on upcoming payrolls – September NFP may be discounted if soft; a strong print could shift sentiment – November NFP likely to be the decisive input ahead of the December FOMC meeting – ECB leaves policy unchanged; Eurozone PMIs improve and core inflation sits at 2.4% YoY – EUR/USD technicals remain bullish above rising trendline; resistance seen near 1.1650
