Headline: Silver Tests Record Territory as Traders Brace for US Data and Fed Signals
Silver’s rally has accelerated, pushing the metal to the cusp of all-time highs as momentum builds across the precious metals market. While fundamentals have been mixed, the latest surge looks driven by short covering and risk-on positioning, with investors zeroing in on upcoming US economic releases and the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path.
From a macro perspective, the next prints for nonfarm payrolls (NFP) and the consumer price index (CPI) will be pivotal for silver prices. Strong labor or inflation data could revive hawkish expectations and cap gains in gold and silver by lifting real yields and delaying rate cuts. Conversely, softer numbers would bolster the case for easier policy, supporting bullion and potentially extending silver’s uptrend. Broadly, a dovish Fed and a downtrend in real yields remain constructive for precious metals, even if near-term repricing keeps volatility elevated.
Technically, silver is testing resistance near prior record highs, a zone where sellers often attempt to fade strength with clearly defined risk. A clean breakout would open the door to fresh peaks, while a pullback could target the major trendline support close to the $45.00 area on the daily timeframe. On lower timeframes, the 4-hour chart shows a key support band around $49.50, reinforced by a minor rising trendline. Buyers are likely to defend this zone; a decisive break below would shift focus toward deeper trend support. Intraday, an additional rising trendline is guiding momentum—holding it keeps the path of least resistance higher, while a breakdown would put $49.50 back in play.
Key Points: – Silver price trades near record highs amid a momentum-driven rally and short covering. – Upcoming US NFP and CPI data are critical catalysts for precious metals volatility. – Strong US data could lift real yields and weigh on silver by delaying rate cuts; weak data would likely support prices. – Long-term backdrop remains constructive on expectations of a dovish Fed and easing real yields. – Resistance sits near the all-time high; key supports include $49.50 (4-hour confluence) and the major trendline near $45.00. – Intraday momentum is guided by a rising trendline; a break would shift focus back to $49.50 support.
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