Headline: Gold Breaks Above Key Resistance as Data Calendar Reawakens
Gold extended its advance, powering through the 4,150 barrier and holding above 4,200 in a momentum-driven move that looks more like position covering than a reaction to fresh fundamentals. With U.S. government operations resuming, the return of top-tier releases such as Nonfarm Payrolls and CPI puts macro risk back at the center of the gold market.
Fundamentally, the latest soft ADP report did not immediately spark the rally, suggesting flows and a squeeze in short positions did the heavy lifting. Looking ahead, strong U.S. labor or inflation prints could weigh on bullion by curbing expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate cuts, while weaker data would likely support gold via lower real yields and a more dovish policy outlook. The broader trend remains constructive as real yields are expected to drift lower, but any near-term hawkish repricing in interest-rate expectations could cap upside.
Technically, the daily close above the prior swing high near 4,150 and the extension past 4,200 reinforce bullish momentum and leave sellers with limited high-conviction entries unless price rejects the highs or slips back below 4,150. On intraday views, 4,150 now acts as a pivotal support zone, aligning with an ascending trendline. Dips into that area may attract buyers with defined risk, while a decisive break beneath it would expose the 4,000 handle as the next downside objective.
Key Points – Gold price cleared resistance near 4,150 and is holding above 4,200. – Rally appears momentum-led, with short covering outweighing fresh fundamental drivers. – U.S. NFP and CPI return as key catalysts as the data calendar normalizes. – Strong U.S. data could pressure gold by tempering rate-cut expectations; weak data would be supportive. – Structural backdrop remains bullish on expectations of lower real yields and a dovish Fed bias. – Key support sits near 4,150; a break lower could target the 4,000 area.
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