Global Markets Brief: Japan’s PPI Surprise, U.S. Reopening, and Diverging Fed Signals
Stronger-than-expected producer prices in Japan and momentum toward a U.S. government reopening set the tone for global markets, as investors weigh inflation trajectories, policy timelines, and the odds of a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut.
Japan’s Producer Price Index rose 0.4% month over month in October and 2.7% year over year, topping forecasts on both measures. The goods PPI beat underscores lingering cost pressures in the supply chain and may complicate the policy outlook for the Bank of Japan. Equity sentiment in Tokyo remained constructive, with Nikkei 225 futures advancing, including a roughly 130-point gain in the November 2025 contract.
In the United States, the House of Representatives advanced legislation to reopen the federal government, clearing a path for delayed economic releases. The White House signaled that September Bureau of Labor Statistics data will be published once operations resume. Rate expectations remain fluid: traders now price roughly a 60% probability of a December Fed cut, even as officials strike different tones—some caution that inflation progress could stall, while others see easing shelter costs aiding disinflation. Stocks were mixed after the Dow briefly touched 48,000 before futures eased; the shutdown is estimated to have shaved about $11 billion from GDP, adding noise to near-term data. On the outlook, Goldman Sachs projects U.S. equities may deliver about 6.5% annual returns given elevated valuations around a 21 P/E and more modest earnings growth.
Key Points – Japan October PPI rose 0.4% m/m and 2.7% y/y, both above expectations. – Nikkei 225 futures gained, with the Nov 2025 contract up roughly 130 points. – U.S. government reopening progresses; BLS September data to be released after operations resume. – Fed officials are split on a December rate cut; markets imply about a 60% probability. – Dow briefly hit 48,000 before futures softened; shutdown impact estimated near $11 billion to GDP. – Goldman Sachs sees U.S. stock returns around 6.5% annually amid high valuations and slower growth.
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