Headline: Nomura Calls December Fed Pause as Strong Labor Market Tempers Rate-Cut Bets
Introduction: Nomura expects the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates unchanged at its December 9–10 policy meeting, diverging from market consensus that still leans toward another quarter-point cut. The bank points to a resilient U.S. labor market and a hawkish tone from Chair Jerome Powell as key reasons for a pause in monetary easing.
Despite disruptions to official data from the recent government shutdown, Nomura argues that underlying job market indicators remain firm, reducing the urgency for additional stimulus. The call marks a notable break from prevailing market pricing and comes after two consecutive rate cuts, suggesting the central bank may step back to assess the impact of earlier moves on inflation and growth.
Nomura also warns that holding rates steady could draw renewed political scrutiny. With an election year approaching, the firm expects criticism that a pause risks constraining economic momentum—pressure that could complicate the Fed’s efforts to keep policy focused on inflation dynamics and labor market conditions.
Key Points: – Nomura forecasts no change to U.S. interest rates at the December 9–10 Federal Reserve meeting. – Rationale centers on a still-strong labor market and Powell’s hawkish messaging in October. – The view breaks with market expectations for another 25-basis-point cut. – A pause would follow two consecutive rate reductions earlier this cycle. – Recent government shutdown disruptions clouded official data, but underlying indicators appear resilient. – Nomura anticipates heightened political pressure on the Fed if policy remains on hold heading into an election year.
