Goldman Sachs Flags First U.S. Payroll Drop Since 2020 as Job Market Cools
The U.S. labor market may be hitting a turning point. Goldman Sachs now expects nonfarm payrolls to have fallen by about 50,000 in October, signaling what could be the first monthly job loss since the pandemic-driven declines of 2020.
The bank’s latest tracking estimate points to slower job creation, with modeled gains easing to roughly 50,000 in October from 85,000 in September. Goldman also anticipates a sizable technical drag from a deferred-resignation program implemented under a prior administration, which allowed thousands of federal employees to remain on payrolls through September 30. As those departures are finally recorded, reported government employment could be reduced by roughly 100,000 positions in October, amplifying the overall decline.
According to the forecast, the softer reading reflects both private-sector cooling and temporary government adjustments. With official jobs releases for September and October delayed following the recent government shutdown, investors are relying on private estimates and high-frequency labor indicators to assess momentum. A negative payroll print would reinforce evidence of labor market cooling and could strengthen the case for additional Federal Reserve rate cuts once official data resume.
Key Points – Goldman Sachs projects a 50,000 decline in October U.S. nonfarm payrolls. – This would mark the first monthly job loss since late 2020. – A deferred-resignation program could subtract about 100,000 government jobs from October totals. – Job growth tracker eased to around 50,000 in October from 85,000 in September. – Official September and October jobs data are delayed due to the recent government shutdown. – A negative payroll reading could bolster expectations for further Fed rate cuts.
