Headline: UBS Projects S&P 500 to Reach 7,300 by Mid-2026 on Fed Easing, Earnings, and AI Momentum
UBS sees more upside for U.S. equities as a supportive policy backdrop, strong corporate profits, and accelerating artificial intelligence investment continue to power the market. The bank projects the S&P 500 could climb to 7,300 by June 2026, with growth assets benefiting from a favorable macro and earnings environment.
UBS expects additional Federal Reserve rate cuts to underpin risk sentiment as evidence of a cooling labor market builds. While officials remain divided on the timing, the bank anticipates two more reductions by early 2026. Fresh economic readings following the government’s reopening are expected to reinforce the narrative of easing inflation and slower hiring, conditions that typically support looser monetary policy and higher equity valuations.
Earnings remain a key driver. Roughly 80% of S&P 500 companies delivered solid third-quarter results, with both the breadth and size of earnings beats surpassing historical norms. Consumer spending has proven resilient, and UBS believes activity delayed by the shutdown will rebound quickly, providing a tailwind for fourth-quarter growth. Meanwhile, a structural lift from AI is gaining traction: technology firms report faster cloud adoption and surging demand for compute power. NVIDIA’s push for additional chip supply from TSMC highlights the strength of the cycle. UBS expects rising capital expenditure on AI to sustain market leadership in technology and support cyclical sectors well into 2026.
Key Points: – UBS targets the S&P 500 at 7,300 by June 2026. – Expected catalysts: Fed policy easing, resilient corporate earnings, and accelerating AI investment. – UBS anticipates two additional Fed rate cuts by early 2026 amid a cooling labor market and easing inflation. – About 80% of S&P 500 firms posted solid Q3 results, with beats above historical averages. – Consumer spending remains firm, with post-shutdown activity likely to boost Q4 growth. – AI-driven capex, stronger cloud growth, and increased chip demand are set to support tech and cyclical stocks.
