Headline: Week Ahead: China Data in Focus, BoJ Signals, RBNZ Survey, and BoC Minutes
Introduction: A packed global macro calendar will guide market sentiment this week, with investors watching inflation trends, central bank signals, and growth updates that could sway rates, currencies, and commodities. Asia takes center stage with China’s price and activity data, while policy cues from the Bank of Japan and Bank of Canada will be parsed for the next steps in monetary policy. In Europe and Oceania, fresh readings on jobs and growth round out a pivotal week for global markets.
The week opens with the Bank of Japan’s Summary of Opinions, offering a deeper read on October’s decision to hold the policy rate at 0.50% in a 7–2 vote. Markets will look for any shift in tone on the pace of normalization and the durability of Japan’s progress toward its 2% inflation target. China’s October inflation print is expected to remain weak, with forecasters looking for CPI to hover around negative territory and producer prices to stay subdued amid overcapacity and softness in property and labor markets. Later in the week, China’s activity gauges—industrial production, retail sales, and fixed-asset investment—are anticipated to show moderation after September’s resilience, a mix that keeps the case for targeted policy support alive. Separately, the extension of the US–China trade truce through November 10, 2026, which includes selective tariff relief and commitments on commodity purchases, could influence near-term pricing in agriculture and critical minerals.
Policy and data risks are spread across developed markets. In New Zealand, the RBNZ’s Q4 Survey of Expectations will be closely watched ahead of the November 26 policy meeting; prior two-year inflation expectations sat comfortably within the 1–3% target band, while markets still lean toward a rate cut profile. The UK labor market report is expected to show a marginal uptick in unemployment and cooling wage momentum, key inputs for the Bank of England as it balances sticky pay dynamics with a disinflation trend. Australia’s October employment report should confirm a gentle slowdown rather than a sharp deterioration, with modest job gains and a stable jobless rate. In North America, minutes from the Bank of Canada—after its 25bp cut to 2.25%—are likely to underscore a cautious holding bias. Europe’s docket features sentiment and activity updates, including Sentix, ZEW, industrial production, and flash GDP and employment, while energy markets digest monthly outlooks from the EIA, OPEC, and IEA.
Key Points: – BoJ Summary of Opinions due after a 7–2 vote to hold at 0.50%; investors seek clues on the pace of policy normalization. – China October CPI likely remains negative year-on-year; PPI subdued; activity data expected to moderate from September’s levels. – US–China trade truce extended through November 10, 2026, with selective tariff relief and commodity purchase commitments. – RBNZ Q4 inflation expectations to guide the November 26 decision; markets still price in rate-cut risk. – UK jobs report seen showing a slight rise in unemployment and cooler wage growth; UK GDP and eurozone GDP/industry updates follow. – BoC minutes to clarify a holding bias after cutting to 2.25%; Australia jobs data expected to show gradual cooling, not a sharp downturn.
