Key Developments
With just over a week left in the month of March, bitcoin is narrowly on track to avoid a historic losing streak. The asset is up around 2% on the month, holding above $68,000. However, a late pullback would see bitcoin close six consecutive months in the red, matching the longest negative streak on record, last seen between August 2018 and January 2019.
From a technical standpoint, the 200-week moving average, (200WMA), remains a key level to watch. This metric, which tracks bitcoin’s long-term trend by averaging its closing price over the past 200 weeks, has historically acted as strong support during bear markets.
Market Context
In the current cycle, the 200WMA sits near $59,000. bitcoin dropped to as low as $60,000 in early February and has since consolidated above this level for nearly two months, suggesting continued strength at this key support. Notably, the 2022 bear market remains the only cycle where bitcoin spent a prolonged stretch below the 200WMA, from June through December.
Beyond USD price action, bitcoin is also beginning to show relative strength against gold. It is on track to post its first positive monthly candle versus gold in eight months, with the bitcoin to gold ratio currently around 16 ounces. Gold, meanwhile, is trading near $4,200 after recently dropping towards $4,000, 5% down on the day. Gold is now down over 25% from its January all time high, wiping out $7.5 trillion in market cap value.
What To Watch
Historically, each cycle has seen smaller drawdowns in the bitcoin to gold ratio from its peak. In this cycle, bitcoin declined roughly 71% against gold from its all-time high in December 2024. These peak to trough cycles have typically lasted around 400 days, suggesting the current downturn may be over denominated in this ratio.
If bitcoin can maintain support above the 200WMA while regaining strength against gold, it would reinforce the view that the broader uptrend remains intact.
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